Turkmenistan

Turkmenistan faces growing air-quality challenges driven by rapid urban expansion, expanding industrial activity, and its arid climate. Population-weighted PM2.5 exposure of 31.2 µg/m³ is about 6.2 times the WHO guideline and was associated with roughly 100 attributable deaths per 100,000 people in 2021. 

Windblown dust is the dominant source, responsible for 70.2% of PM2.5. The remaining contributions are primarily anthropogenic and therefore more tractable for policy intervention: energy 6.6%, transport 5.2%, agriculture 4.2%, industrial activities 4.1%, and residential sources 2.3%. 

Fine particulate pollution in Turkmenistan drives a broad health burden, contributing substantially to cardiovascular and respiratory illness as well as metabolic and developmental conditions. The largest shares of PM2.5-attributable deaths are from stroke (21%) and type 2 diabetes (19%), with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, ischemic heart disease, and lung cancers each around 17%, plus lower respiratory infections (14%) and neonatal disorders (8%), reflecting both long-term chronic effects and acute risks during high-exposure events.

The seasonal PM2.5 chart for Ashgabat shows a consistent pattern of elevated winter concentrations and much lower levels during summer. PM2.5 levels peak between December and February, while June to September remain the cleanest months, with concentrations typically staying below 15–20 µg/m³. Although individual years vary, the winter–summer contrast is a stable feature across the 2000–2024 period. The monthly maximum PM2.5 distribution reveals significant winter variability, with frequent spikes in December–February. Extreme values often exceed 150–200 µg/m³ in winter, while summer months show tightly clustered and much lower maxima. This pattern indicates heightened short-term pollution episodes during colder months.

Across Turkmenistan’s major cities, annual PM2.5 concentrations remain elevated from 2000 to 2024. Ashgabat consistently records the highest levels, followed by Turkmenabat, while concentrations in Dashoguz remains comparatively lower but still above international health guidelines. Annual averages fluctuate year to year but show no clear long-term decline. SO₂ concentrations vary notably across cities. Turkmenabat shows the highest annual SO₂ levels, often around 1.0–1.3 µg/m³, while Ashgabat follows with moderate concentrations. Concentrations in Dashoguz remains the lowest, with values generally below 0.8 µg/m³. Levels remain relatively stable over time, with persistent elevation in Turkmenabat.

Turkmenistan is the third largest emitter of CO2 in Central Asia, with a CO2 intensity of GDP roughly 173% greater than the global average. The energy sector accounts for an estimated 85% of the country’s GHG emission, with electricity and heat generation alone contributing to roughly 27%. Fossil fuels dominate the energy mix, with natural gas constituting roughly 75% of total energy supply, whilst renewable energy supply is negligible. Thus, Turkmenistan must scale low-carbon electrification across all sectors and enable investments into its renewable energy resources, notably solar, wind and large-scale Carbon Capture Use and Storage. 

Turkmenistan is strengthening its air protection framework with new laws and regulations aimed at minimizing industrial and urban emissions. State authorities now regularly monitor air quality in cities and enforce maximum permissible emissions standards for major sectors, comparable to European Union and World Health Organization guidelines. Recent policy updates include strict requirements for waste handling and pollution control at industrial facilities, as well as moving high-polluting sources away from urban areas.