Publications·December 30, 2023
This executive summary reviews China’s air quality and policy landscape through 2022, pairing national/regional pollutant trends with shifts in energy, industry, and transport, and closing with concrete recommendations. The core message is mixed but forward-leaning: PM₂.₅, PM₁₀, SO₂, NO₂ and CO continued to improve, yet O₃ rebounded and attainment slipped slightly, underscoring the need to tighten standards, keep pressure on precursors, and strengthen implementation in hard-to-abate sectors.
Air quality levels and attainment.
Across 339 prefecture-level (and above) cities, the 2022 annual mean PM₂.₅ fell to 29 µg/m³ (−1 µg/m³ year-on-year), pushing the national average below 30 µg/m³ for the first time. NO₂ improved (21 µg/m³), and SO₂ and CO remained low, but O₃ rose to 145 µg/m³ (+5.8% vs 2021). With ozone’s bounce-back, the national attainment-day share edged down 1 percentage point to 86.5%; cities fully attaining all six pollutants fell by 5 to 213. Pollutant-specific attainment moved in different directions: O₃ attainment dropped (−12.4 pp), while PM₂.₅ and PM₁₀ attainment increased; NO₂ attainment reached 100% for the first time, and SO₂/CO remained at 100% (fourth consecutive year).
Key regions: progress stalled for PM₂.₅, O₃ still elevated.
In the three priority regions—Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH+), Yangtze River Delta (YRD), and the Fenwei Plain—PM₂.₅ failed to improve in 2022: YRD held at 31 µg/m³, while BTH+ and Fenwei rose to 44 and 46 µg/m³ respectively; more cities in each region saw PM₂.₅ rebound. O₃ remained problematic: BTH+ exceeded the standard for the seventh straight year with all cities non-attainment; YRD saw O₃ rise in most cities and a sharp drop in O₃ attainment; Fenwei rose least but still had 8 of 11 cities out of compliance. These patterns point to persistent VOC-limited chemistry and the need to redirect control efforts toward NMVOCs (and CH₄) alongside NOₓ.
Energy system transition: record renewables capacity, coal still pivotal.
Total energy consumption reached 5.41 billion tce in 2022 (+2.9% YoY). Coal’s share ticked up to 56.2% (first uptick since 2011), while clean energy consumption rose to 25.9%. In the power sector, installed capacity totaled 2.56 TW; crucially, renewables (1.21 TW, 47.3%) surpassed coal-fired capacity (1.12 TW, 43.8%) for the first time. To integrate variable renewables, China advanced the “three retrofits” for coal units, completing about 257 GW of flexibility retrofits by end-2022—part of a shift from coal as baseload to system-support and regulating capacity.
Industry: ULE momentum and remaining gaps.
Crude steel output dipped to 1.013 Bt (−2.1%), with 207 Mt of capacity completing ultra-low-emission (ULE) retrofits. Cement production fell to 2.12 Bt (lowest since 2011), while provinces launched sector-wide ULE programs and an industry ULE standard to guide retrofits. Enforcement quality varies, and instances of emissions-data falsification were found—highlighting the need for stronger verification, performance-based regulation, and accelerated low-carbon technology deployment (e.g., hydrogen-rich blast furnaces, waste-heat utilization, efficient grinding/sealing in cement).
Residential combustion (“loose coal”): consolidate gains, expand clean heating.
Key plains within BTH+ and Fenwei have largely completed clean-heating rollouts, but reversion risks (costs, subsidy delays, user preferences, poor insulation) threaten durability. Outside the two priority regions, clean-heating demonstrations expanded—adding northeast and northwest cities—and pilots began to scale renewable-energy heating suited to local conditions. The recommendation is to lock in conversions and extend renewables-based heating beyond key regions.
Transport: structure shift + clean fleets.
Freight modal shift advanced: relative to 2020, by 2022 railway and waterway freight volumes were up 9.5% and 12.3%, respectively—putting 14th FYP targets (+10% rail, +12% waterway by 2025) within reach. Combined rail-water containers hit 8.75 million TEU (+16% YoY), backed by last-mile rail links to ports and industrial parks. Meanwhile, energy transition of vehicles and ships accelerated: NEV sales share rose to 25.6% (from 5.4% in 2020); inland shipping is piloting pure-electric for short routes while methanol, hydrogen, ammonia are under test for longer routes—pending tech, cost, and policy breakthroughs.
Policy recommendations (selected).
Revise ambient standards promptly—tighten PM₂.₅ limits and add peak-season O₃ indicators—so standards remain binding and health-protective, in step with WHO and recent EU/US moves. Pair with a robust standards-revision process grounded in domestic health evidence. 2) Support coal-power retrofits (flexibility, cogeneration, efficiency) via incentives and market mechanisms, while carefully controlling new coal approvals to avoid idle assets and ensure alignment with dual-carbon goals. 3) Deepen industrial ULE and low-carbon shifts—strengthen verification, link incentives to environmental performance, and accelerate breakthrough technologies in iron & steel and cement. 4) Scale multimodal transport—improve rail–port connectivity, adopt “single-order” logistics and standards for combined rail-water, and speed up smart/green port development; given trajectory, rail-water containers must grow at ≥17% CAGR through 2025 to meet targets.
Bottom line.
China sustained broad improvements in PM₂.₅/PM₁₀/SO₂/NO₂/CO in 2022, but O₃’s rebound and regional PM₂.₅ plateaus show the next tranche of gains will be harder and more chemistry- and sector-specific. The executive summary’s pathway is pragmatic: raise and enforce standards, flex and green the power system, finish ULE in heavy industry, consolidate clean heating, and shift/clean transport—with tighter governance to ensure lasting, equitable air-quality progress.
Keywords
PM₂.₅ = 29 µg/m³ (2022); O₃ = 145 µg/m³ (rebound); attainment days 86.5%; cities in full attainment 213; BTH+/YRD/Fenwei PM₂.₅ 44/31/46 µg/m³; O₃ non-attainment across BTH+; energy consumption 5.41 Btce; renewables > coal in installed capacity (47.3% vs 43.8%); coal-unit flexibility retrofits ~257 GW; steel ULE 207 Mt capacity; cement 2.12 Bt and ULE standard; “loose coal” control & renewable heating pilots; rail/water freight +9.5%/+12.3% vs 2020; combined rail-water 8.75M TEU; NEV 25.6% sales share (2022); electric inland vessels; methanol/hydrogen/ammonia pilots; revise AAQS (tighter PM₂.₅; peak O₃); incentivize coal retrofits; multimodal 17% CAGR target to 2025.