Publications·December 30, 2024
This executive summary takes stock of China’s air quality and policy progress through 2023, comparing national averages and key economic regions with 2019 baselines, and pairing results with sectoral policy updates and forward-looking recommendations. It shows continued nationwide declines in five of the six criteria pollutants since 2019, improved city attainment, faster structural shifts in energy and industry, and targeted pushes in freight and transport—all alongside candid recommendations on where to go next (coal power flexibility and low-carbon upgrades, ultra-low-emission retrofits in heavy industry, and stronger in-use vehicle/ship oversight).
Air quality levels: broad improvement since 2019.
With post-pandemic activity fully restored in 2023, the national annual mean concentrations of PM₂.₅, PM₁₀, SO₂, NO₂ and CO were 15.9–28.6% lower than in 2019; O₃ edged down 2.7%. The average attainment-day share across 339 prefecture-level (and above) cities rose to 85.5% (+3.5 percentage points vs 2019), and 203 cities met the national Ambient Air Quality Standards—46 more than in 2019. Attainment rates improved for PM₂.₅, PM₁₀, O₃ and NO₂, while SO₂ and CO remained at 100% attainment.
Key regions: PM₂.₅ down, O₃ easing—especially in the YRD.
All three priority regions—Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei and surroundings (BTH+), Yangtze River Delta (YRD), and Fenwei Plain—cut PM₂.₅ by >20%, outpacing the national average; the YRD met the national PM₂.₅ standard in 2023. Ozone also trended downward across the key regions, with the YRD compliant with the national O₃ limit.
Energy system: cleaner mix, renewables now dominate capacity.
Total energy consumption rose 5.7% year-on-year to 5.72 billion tce in 2023, yet the coal share fell to a record-low 55.3% (down 0.7 pp vs 2022; down ~15 pp since 2011), while clean energy (natural gas + hydro/wind/solar) reached 26.4% and non-fossil energy 17.9%. On the power side, total installed capacity hit 2.92 TW; renewables surpassed thermal for the first time, reaching 51.9% of capacity, and wind/solar supplied ~80% of 2023’s new capacity. Their combined installed base exceeded 1 TW, producing 1,470.1 TWh (15.6% of generation) and accounting for 46.1% of the year’s generation growth.
Coal power: flexibility and support mechanisms.
To accommodate variable renewables, China completed >300 GW of flexibility retrofits across coal units (2021–2023)—surpassing the 14th FYP target ahead of schedule—and rolled out a capacity electricity price nationwide from 1 Jan 2024 to stabilize revenues for plants providing peak-shaving/system services. The report recommends continuing retrofits, investing in rapid-ramp technologies, optimizing dispatch, and piloting low-carbon coal-power tech—all while ensuring the sector reaches carbon peak before 2030 in step with the national target.
Heavy industry: ultra-low-emission (ULE) retrofit momentum.
ULE retrofits advanced in iron & steel—89 enterprises completed work by 2023, covering 426 Mt of crude steel capacity (~80% of the 14th FYP’s 530 Mt target). In cement, output fell to 2.02 Bt (lowest since 2011) as excess capacity was dismantled and replacement rules tightened; national roll-out of ULE for cement is being prepared. Recommendations include cracking down on fugitive emissions, scaling intelligent controls, and accelerating energy-saving and low-carbon technologies (e.g., hydrogen metallurgy, hydrogen-rich blast furnaces).
Freight and transport: structure shift + cleaner fleets.
Freight modal shift continued: “road-to-rail” and “road-to-water” targets for 2025 were met early (waterway in 2022; railway in 2023), and multimodal transport was elevated with 2025 quantitative goals (e.g., port rail-access rate, combined rail-water container volumes). On the energy side, new-energy trucks exceeded 7% market penetration (from 2% in 2020); a policy push aims to eliminate China III vehicles by 2027 (some regions targeting China IV too). Electric vessels surpassed 700 units, and shore-power use is required when berthing along the Yangtze River. The report urges tougher in-use emissions supervision—tighter periodic testing, remote sensing, OBD remote monitoring, and stronger oversight of non-road mobile sources.
Enforcement and inspections: closing implementation gaps.
The third round of central ecological/environmental inspections (launched Nov 2023) found excess high-emitting projects, over-limit exhaust, fraud in I&M agencies, and inadequate dust controls in some provinces. Recommendations: maintain continuous multi-level inspections (central/provincial/routine/special), ensure full coverage of key sectors/regions, and leverage public disclosure to drive rectification.
Standards: signal to raise the bar.
Given rising PM₂.₅ attainment and regional heterogeneity, current ambient limits are increasingly non-binding for cleaner regions and looser than recent EU/US revisions. China’s Action Plan on Air Quality Continuous Improvement (Nov 2023) therefore calls for accelerating research toward Ambient Air Quality Standards revision, using domestic health-effects evidence, learning from international methods, and institutionalizing a standards-revision process.
Overall message.
China’s 2019–2023 record shows that sustained policy pressure—across energy, industry, and transport, backed by monitoring and inspections—can keep cutting PM₂.₅/NO₂/SO₂/PM₁₀/CO even as the economy grows, with ozone now the most stubborn pollutant in many places. The executive summary’s recipes are pragmatic: keep raising standards, finish ULE in key industries, flex the power system for high renewables, clean in-use fleets and equipment, and tighten supervision—so that the next round of improvements is both faster and durable.
Keywords
PM₂.₅; PM₁₀; SO₂; NO₂; O₃; CO; attainment days (339 cities); attainment cities (203); BTH+/YRD/Fenwei key regions; coal share 55.3%; non-fossil 17.9%; renewables 51.9% of installed capacity; wind/solar ≈80% of 2023 additions; 1,470.1 TWh wind+solar (15.6%); coal-unit flexibility retrofits (>300 GW); capacity electricity price (2024); steel/cement ULE; multimodal freight targets; NEV trucks >7%; eliminate China III by 2027; 700+ electric vessels; shore power on Yangtze; central inspections (3rd round, Nov 2023); AAQS revision research signaled.