Synergistic Control of Greenhouse Gases and Air Pollutants in Jinan City

In April 2022, with support from Energy Foundation China, Tsinghua University and the Jinan Environmental Research Academy released this research report on how to use one set of policies and actions to reduce greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions in Jinan City, the capital of Shandong Province. The province is one of China’s manufacturing powerhouses.

The report develops a quantitative assessment method to quantify the synergistic benefits of different pollution control approaches in the PM2.5 compliance scenario, and recommends feasible synergistic control actions and policies.

The researchers hope their findings can provide science-based evidence, as Jinan prepares its local 14th five-year plan for climate change and the implementation plan for the synergistic control of greenhouse gases and air pollutants. They hope the research can also inspire other cities to establish a co-control strategy for greenhouse gases and criteria air pollutants.

Prepared by Tsinghua University and the Jinan Environmental Research Academy, this report designs a city-level roadmap to meet ambient air-quality targets while peaking and bending down CO₂—treating both as one problem with shared sources in fossil-fuel combustion. It builds a bottom-up, unified inventory for CO₂ and criteria pollutants, then uses WRF–CMAQ air-quality modeling and a response-surface model (RSM) to compare policy bundles for 2025 and 2035. The goal is practical: identify measures with the largest joint payoff (“减污降碳协同效益”) per yuan spent and per µg/m³ of PM₂.₅ avoided.

Where Jinan stands now

Energy & structure. Jinan remains a heavy industrial city; despite progress since 2016, coal still made up roughly 70% of final energy use in 2020, with oil ~12–15%. “Dual-high” sectors (steel, cement, coke, petrochemicals) and road-dominated freight keep structural pressure high.

Air quality. By 2020, annual means were PM₁₀ = 86, PM₂.₅ = 47, SO₂ = 12, NO₂ = 35 μg/m³, CO = 1.5 mg/m³, O₃ = 184 μg/m³; SO₂/NO₂/CO met Class-II standards but PM and O₃ still exceeded targets—O₃ is increasingly prominent. Complex terrain (shallow-basin, valley winds) and frequent light-wind “stagnation centers” impede dispersion.

Carbon. Using IPCC 2006 methods, the city estimates ~90 Mt CO₂ in 2019 from the energy sector and ~104 Mt CO₂ in total when including industrial processes—tracking the drop in coal consumption after major industrial shifts (e.g., Jinan Steel relocation). Coal remains the dominant CO₂ source, roughly five times the sum of other fuels.

Challenge. Jinan is on the “left side” of the environmental Kuznets curve: growth still adds energy and transport pressure; end-of-pipe PM controls face rising marginal costs; deeper structural change in fuel, industry, transport, land use is now decisive.

What the report built (methods in plain language)

Unified, high-resolution inventories. A 1 km × 1 km grid for CO₂ and pollutants (SO₂, NOₓ, VOCs, PM, NH₃) aligns statistical boundaries and sources so “co-benefits” are quantifiable at the same stacks and streets. A striking result: the top 4% of grids contribute >90% of city CO₂; these hotspots also align with CO, SO₂, NOₓ, VOCs, while PM dust and NH₃ are more spatially diffuse—guiding where to act first.

Models that respond like the real world. WRF provides meteorology to CMAQ (27/9/3-km nests, CB6 + AERO7 chemistry); 2019 hourly PM₂.₅ simulations achieve r > 0.6 at each national station—good enough for scenario testing. A Response-Surface Model (RSM) then links changes in SO₂, NOₓ, VOCs, NH₃, primary PM to PM₂.₅ concentration changes for fast “what-if” runs.

New “co-benefit” indices to rank measures.

SIPM: CO₂ reduced per 1 µg/m³ PM₂.₅ lowered.

SIcost: cost per 1 µg/m³ PM₂.₅ lowered.

SIBC: benefit-cost ratio, monetizing (i) avoided PM₂.₅ health losses using GEMM with Jinan VSL ≈ 4.15 million RMB, and (ii) CO₂ using SCC = 97 RMB/t-CO₂ (2020 price). Population base ≈ 9.2 million. These give an apples-to-apples way to compare industry vs transport vs energy options.

The scenarios and what they imply

Starting from consistent 2035 socio-economic assumptions (population ~11 million; GDP and industrial value added rising with advanced-manufacturing focus), the study tests three bundles:

Baseline (existing national/provincial/city 14th-FYP policies),

Enhanced (best available techniques, EU BREF/EPA analogues),

Strengthened (aligned with global energy trends and “Beautiful China” ambitions).

Each bundle mixes energy-structure shifts, industrial deep-control and upgrades, transport restructuring & in-use control, and refined urban management. The attainment (PM₂.₅ ≤ 35 µg/m³) pathway is then chosen by maximum SIBC (largest health + carbon benefit per yuan).

Where the joint wins are largest (sector takeaways)

1) Energy & power/heat. Prioritize coal-to-clean structure (gas where appropriate, but accelerate renewables & electrification) and efficiency upgrades in CHP and heat. Because CO₂ and SO₂/NOₓ/PM are co-emitted, these measures score high on SIPM (big carbon cuts per µg/m³ PM₂.₅). The hotspot-grid map helps site retirements, fuel switches, and clean heat to maximize urban gains.

2) Industry (steel, cement, coke, petrochemicals). Finish ultra-low-emission (ULE) retrofits; ensure O&M to keep devices performing at design rates; push process and energy efficiency; and use substitution (e.g., lower-clinker cement). Industrial measures deliver large SO₂/NOₓ/PM cuts and CO₂ intensity gains where they reduce fuel and heat rates—again high SIPM and SIBC if well targeted.

3) Transport & non-road mobile. Jinan’s NOₓ burden is increasingly transport-heavy. Tighten in-use compliance (I/M, remote-sensing/OBD/PEMS), retire high-emitters, promote zero-emission buses/logistics on urban and short-haul duty cycles, and shift freight where feasible. These steps are pivotal for O₃ (NOₓ) control and deliver good SIPM when they lower fuel use.

4) VOCs & solvents. Keep leading nationally on solvent source substitution, low-solvent products, and fugitive control—critical for managing O₃ while maintaining PM gains.

5) Agriculture (NH₃) and dust. Because secondary PM is NH₃-sensitive, raise fertilizer efficiency and manure management; keep dust in check (construction/roads/stockpiles) with measurable yard and route controls. These help push PM₂.₅ across the attainment line.

Governance & data the report asks for

Carbon-led planning: progressively design air-pollution controls around carbon (long-lived signal with strong SIPM), so post-2030 gains don’t stall.

Integrated monitoring & open data: build coherent data systems for activity + emissions + ambient (with QA/QC), unify units, and align indices, APIs, and disclosure across departments to support evaluation and course correction.

Finance & pilots: actively seek inclusion in national pilots, use the benefit–cost logic to prioritize early-action projects with strong SIPM/SIBC, and lock in O&M (not just CAPEX).

Bottom line

For Jinan, the next tranche of clean-air progress is structural: less coal, more efficient/clean industry, and cleaner mobility—chosen by quantified, co-benefit indices rather than end-of-pipe alone. With 1 km hotspot maps, validated WRF–CMAQ/RSM, and SIPM–SIcost–SIBC scoring that monetizes health and carbon, the city can sequence measures that hit PM₂.₅ attainment and bend CO₂ at the lowest social cost—a replicable model for other industrial metros.

Keywords

Co-control (air + carbon); PM₂.₅ attainment; WRF–CMAQ; response-surface model (RSM); unified CO₂ + pollutant inventory (1 km grid); hotspot grids; SIPM / SIcost / SIBC; SCC 97 RMB/t-CO₂; VSL 4.15 million RMB; coal-to-clean structure; ULE industry; in-use diesel control; VOCs/solvents; NH₃; terrain-limited dispersion.