Publications·December 25, 2011
Air pollution has major health impacts on people living in Ulaanbaatar. The excessively high particulate matter concentrations, especially in the winter and in the ger areas, increase the incidence of heart and lung diseases, and lead to premature deaths. Improving air quality management in Ulaanbaatar and reducing pollution concentrations would prevent illnesses, save lives and avoid enormous health costs. The implementation of the Air Monitoring and Health Impact Baseline (AMHIB) study has brought together Mongolian and international air quality experts as well as public health experts and economists who have taken an synergetic approach of linking public health, air quality and economic issues. This report builds upon the discussion paper air pollution in Ulaanbaatar: initial assessment of current situation and effects of abatement measures that was published in December 2009, and reflects the final results and recommendations from the AMHIB project. This World Bank report examines the severe air pollution crisis in Ulaanbaatar (UB), Mongolia's capital, and its massive public health and economic consequences. The study combines year-long air quality monitoring, health impact assessment, source apportionment, and a cost-benefit analysis of intervention strategies. It represents the final output of the Air Monitoring and Health Impact Baseline (AMHIB) project conducted from June 2008 to May 2009.
1. Context and Objectives
Particulate matter (PM) pollution—especially PM10 and PM2.5—is the dominant concern in UB.
PM levels in UB are among the highest recorded globally, with concentrations 10–25 times above Mongolian air quality standards.
Ger areas (informal settlements with traditional tents) contribute disproportionately to emissions, and residents suffer the worst exposure.
The study aims to measure PM levels, assess health impacts, estimate health costs, and evaluate pollution reduction options.
2. Key Findings
Air Pollution Levels and Sources
Annual average PM concentrations were extremely high, reaching 350–700 μg/m³ for PM10 and 200–350 μg/m³ for PM2.5 in ger areas.
Winter pollution is far worse due to coal burning for heating; summer levels are lower but still hazardous.
Primary pollution sources:
Coal and wood burning for heating and cooking (especially in gers).
Soil dust from unpaved roads and open areas.
Emissions from heat-only boilers (HOBs), power plants, and vehicles.
Ger stove emissions and suspended soil dust together account for 75–95% of ground-level PM concentrations.
Health Impacts
Exposure to PM leads to cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, chronic bronchitis, and premature deaths.
In ger areas, mortality is 24–45% higher than it would be if Mongolian air quality standards were met.
The economic cost of health impacts is enormous: estimated $177–$727 million per year, equivalent to 7–30% of UB’s GDP.
Epidemiological findings:
Every 10 μg/m³ increase in PM2.5 corresponds to a 1.4% increase in daily all-cause mortality (warm season).
Coarse particle increases are linked to a 0.25% rise in daily cardiovascular mortality (one-day lag).
Hospital admissions for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases increase significantly with PM concentration rises.
3. Willingness to Pay (WTP) for Cleaner Air
A WTP survey conducted among 629 UB residents revealed a high valuation of reduced health risks.
Estimated value of statistical life (VSL): $221,000 USD, indicating that UB citizens highly prioritize health improvements relative to income levels.
4. Pollution Reduction Scenarios
The report simulates emission reductions and their impacts:
30%, 50%, and 80% reduction scenarios modeled for key pollution sources.
80% reduction in emissions from ger heating, HOBs, and suspended soils leads to a 69% decline in PM concentrations but still insufficient to meet standards.
To meet standards, 94% emission reduction would be necessary across these sectors.
Cost-Benefit Analysis of Interventions
Eight abatement options assessed, including:
Improved stove technologies.
Electric heating.
Fuel switching (to semi-coked coal).
Relocation of ger households into apartments.
Dust control measures (road paving and soil greening).
Five scenarios yield net economic benefits of $393–$1,635 million over 15 years.
Some interventions (e.g., certified stoves) are more cost-effective and quicker to implement compared to large-scale relocations.
5. Recommended Strategy
The report recommends a multi-pronged, phased strategy:
Short-term actions (1–3 years): Replace stoves, improve heating technologies, dust suppression.
Medium- to long-term actions: Electrification, apartment construction, broader urban infrastructure upgrades.
Establish clear emissions reduction targets aligned with Mongolian Air Quality Standards.
Implement an interagency coordination body with strong monitoring and reporting functions.
Public awareness campaigns to engage citizens and support behavioral change.
Continuous health studies and air quality monitoring to track progress.
Important Key Words
Particulate matter (PM10, PM2.5)
Ger areas
Health impacts
Mortality and morbidity
Cost-benefit analysis
Willingness to Pay (WTP)
Value of Statistical Life (VSL)
Emission inventory
Abatement options
Source apportionment
Air Quality Management (AQM)
Heat-only boilers (HOBs)
Coal burning
Dust suspension
Epidemiological study
Exposure-response function
Urban health costs
Short-term vs long-term interventions
Public health crisis
Urban planning and infrastructure
Conclusion
Despite the grave air pollution situation, the study finds that significant improvements are possible with a combination of immediate, cost-effective actions and sustained long-term investments. Mongolia can dramatically reduce public health risks and economic losses by following an integrated air quality management approach based on the findings and scenarios modeled in this report.