Publications·June 23, 2014
Pakistan's urban air pollution is among the most severe in the world and it engenders significant damages to human health and the economy. Air pollution, inadequate water supply, sanitation, and hygiene are the top environmental priority problems in Pakistan. Industrialization and urbanization, in conjunction with motorization, can result in further deterioration of urban air quality. This book examines policy options to strengthen the Pakistan clean air program (PCAP) to better address the cost imposed by outdoor air pollution upon Pakistan's economy and populace. The approach provided in this book recommends that the federal and provincial environmental protection agencies (EPAs) take on a limited number of high return, essential, and feasible interventions drawn largely from the PCAP. The objective of this book is to examine policy options to control outdoor air pollution in Pakistan. The findings of the analysis aim at assisting the Government of Pakistan (GoP) in the design and implementation of reforms to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of Pakistan's ambient air quality institutions. The overarching theme of this book is that prioritizing interventions is essential to address the cost of outdoor air pollution, given current resource limitations. The book also includes a review of secondary sources, focusing on recent analysis of the effects of different air pollutants on human health, as well as lessons learned from ongoing regional and international efforts to improve ambient air quality. This book has seven chapters. Chapter one gives overview. Chapter two identifies major trends in ambient air pollution, including concentration levels of main pollutants and the identification of principal sources. Chapter three examines the evolution of Pakistan's air quality management (AQM) framework over the period 1993 to 2013. Chapter four examines options to control air pollution from mobile sources, the main contributors of several air pollutants, including noxious fine particulate matter (PM) and its precursors. Chapter five addresses measures to tackle pollution from industrial sources. Chapter six identifies synergies of interventions for air pollution control and climate change mitigation. Chapter seven summarizes the main conclusions of the book.
Pakistan is the most urbanised country in South Asia; its vehicle fleet has leapt from ~2 million to >10 million in two decades and industry relies heavily on high-sulphur oil and ad-hoc generators. Ambient PM₂.₅, SO₂ and lead (until 2001) routinely exceed WHO guidelines by factors of 3-20. The book synthesises a decade of primary studies and new analyses to answer three questions:
How large is the health-and-economic burden of outdoor air pollution?
Which sources contribute most, and how are trends evolving?
Which interventions deliver the greatest benefit-cost returns, given Pakistan’s fiscal and institutional constraints?
2 Evidence base & methods
Data platform. The authors re-analyse hourly records from the JICA-installed national monitoring network (2007-10) covering Islamabad, Karachi, Lahore, Peshawar and Quetta; ad-hoc campaigns in smaller cities; and satellite AOD estimates for spatial gaps. Temporal coverage of key pollutants ranges from 5 % (PM₂.₅ in Quetta) to 96 % (CO in Islamabad) but still provides the most robust dataset to date.
Statistical tools. Principal-component analysis (PCA) groups co-varying pollutants into “Primary” (traffic & industrial combustion) and “Secondary” (photochemical) factors; Positive Matrix Factorisation and CMB receptor modelling support source shares.
Health valuation. Concentration-response functions from global literature, Pakistani mortality statistics and WHO burden-of-disease coefficients feed cost-of-illness and value-of-statistical-life (VSL) monetisation.
Intervention appraisal. Benefit-cost ratios (BCRs) compare monetised health gains with capital, operating and enforcement costs for >20 policy options.
3 What the data show
Indicator (2007-10) Karachi Lahore Peshawar Islamabad Quetta
Annual PM₂.₅ (µg m⁻³) 88 143 71 61 49
Exceedance vs. WHO (10 µg m⁻³) 9× 14× 7× 6× 5×
Trend Flat-high Rising Rising Slight rise Variable
Seasonality. Winter inversions (Dec–Mar) double or triple PM₂.₅, NO₂, SO₂; summer sees dust storms in Sindh and Punjab.
Karachi source apportionment (2006-09). Road vehicles 24-28 %; industrial combustion 19-20 %; open burning 8-14 %; domestic biomass 4-5 %; secondary sulphate/nitrate 12-13 %; natural dust/sea salt 23-24 %. Two-stroke bikes/three-wheelers and heavy diesel trucks dominate the mobile share.
National health burden. Outdoor PM₂.₅ causes ≈22 600 premature deaths annually (2005 baseline), >80 000 hospital admissions and 5 million child respiratory cases—costing ~0.6 % of GDP in the four largest metros alone. Karachi alone records >9 000 premature deaths each year.
4 Policy options & economics
4.1 Mobile-source package (Karachi BCR examples)
Measure Prerequisites PM cut BCR
500 ppm → 50 ppm diesel sulphur refinery upgrades/import specs 40-60 % PM, large SOₓ/secondary benefits 1.1–2.4
Diesel oxidation catalysts (DOCs) 500 ppm fuel, inspection & maintenance (I/M) 20-30 % PM 1.0–1.3
CNG conversion of minibuses/vans secure gas supply, quality kits ≈90 % PM 1.2–1.7
Phase-out two-stroke bikes/rickshaws credit, scrappage, mechanic training >90 % PM 2–4
Savings from fuel efficiency and maintenance lower net costs, pushing most BCRs above unity.
4.2 Stationary-source package
Low-sulphur (1 %) fuel-oil switch for coastal power and cement plants (~US$50 t⁻¹ premium) yields benefits nearly equal to cost; targeting urban stacks first maximises returns.
Kiln modernisation & solid-waste burn bans: high PM reductions, low capital outlays but enforcement-intensive.
Distributed diesel-generator controls (maintenance, exhaust abatement) address peak-load PM spikes in load-shedding episodes.
4.3 Climate co-benefits
Fuel-sulphur reduction, diesel retrofits and CNG deployment jointly cut black-carbon, methane and CO₂, aligning with Pakistan’s National Climate Policy and offering access to climate finance instruments (CDM, NAMA).
5 Institutional & capacity gaps
Dimension Current status Recommended actions
Monitoring JICA network mothballed; 20 % data loss even when active; PM₂.₅ rarely measured outside 5 cities Restore and expand reference BAM stations; publish real-time data; QA/QC protocols; low-cost sensor pilots
Legal framework NEQS updated (2010) but enforcement weak; no binding fuel road-map; overlapping federal/provincial roles post-18th Amendment Draft National AQM Plan; adopt phased sulphur schedule; empower provinces with fiscal instruments
Institutional capacity Pak-EPA and provincial EPAs under-staffed, <1 % of needed O&M budgets; judiciary fills enforcement vacuum via public-interest litigation Create dedicated air divisions with ring-fenced budgets; training in inventory, modelling, compliance; establish Environmental Tribunals for swift penalties
Data use Air-health links seldom integrated into economic planning Embed AQM indicators in PC-1 project appraisal; routine cost-benefit screening of clean-air investments
6 Six-step priority road-map
Slash fine-particle precursors from transport: 50 ppm diesel, CNG priority for high-mileage fleets, two-stroke phase-out, scaled I/M.
Modernise industrial point sources: enforce stack standards on cement, power, brick kilns; incentivise cleaner fuels.
Ban open burning & improve waste management to capture quick PM wins.
Restore and densify monitoring network; link to health surveillance and early-warning.
Strengthen governance—clear mandates, performance-based budgets, tribunals for rapid penalties, public disclosure.
Leverage climate finance: package black-carbon controls and fuel transitions into NDC updates and seek concessional funding.
7 Key words
Pakistan; PM₂.₅; low-sulphur diesel; diesel retrofit; two-stroke phase-out; health-cost valuation; benefit-cost analysis; institutional capacity; monitoring network; climate co-benefits.