Publications·December 30, 2022
This report is part of the China Air series. It compiles comparable indicators across six domains—air quality, air-pollutant emissions, greenhouse gases, energy, transport, and key industrial sectors—to benchmark China’s past decade of progress and situate it against peers in East, South, and South-East Asia (plus the US, UK, and Germany). The aim is mutual learning and policy transfer, with a focus on standards, structural change, and enforcement that drive simultaneous gains in public health and economic development.
Rapid air-quality improvement with growth.
Since China’s 2013 “war on air pollution” and the Action Plan for Air Pollution Prevention and Control, national annual averages have fallen steeply—PM₂.₅ down ~56% (2013–2021) and SO₂ down ~78%—even as GDP grew at ~6.6%/yr, energy consumption rose ~25%, and vehicle ownership more than doubled. Compared with the long trajectories in the US/EU, the report highlights how similar absolute pollution cuts were achieved in ~7 years while the economy continued expanding. Across Asian megacities, 8 of the 9 with >10% improvement (2018–2021, 3-yr moving average) are in East Asia, six of them in China. Still, China’s population-weighted PM₂.₅ is 3–4× higher than in developed countries, so there is “room to go.”
The Kuznets “turning point” and South Asia’s dual challenge.
A scatter of PM₂.₅ exposure vs. GDP per capita shows an Environmental Kuznets Curve pattern: higher-income countries have cleaner air. China crossed roughly $10,000 per-capita GDP and began decoupling growth from PM₂.₅; several South Asian countries (Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan) still face the dual task of growing while reducing pollution.
Ozone is stubborn.
While PM₂.₅ fell, ozone (O₃) exposure during the ozone season has risen in many Asian countries over the last decade; several (e.g., India, Republic of Korea, Singapore, Sri Lanka) saw increases >30%. China’s seasonal O₃ levels sit near WHO IT-1 (100 µg/m³) and are comparable to Japan and Korea, underscoring the need for stronger NMVOC and CH₄ control.
Standards matter—and keep tightening.
The report inventories ambient standards across countries. China’s annual PM₂.₅ limit equals WHO IT-1 (35 µg/m³); all 339 prefecture-level (and above) cities are ≈30 µg/m³, meeting the national Class II limit. Yet this is much looser than the WHO AQG (5 µg/m³) and many developed-country targets, so revising standards upward remains a health priority. Meanwhile, many Asian countries still fail to meet their own limits, including those with stringent numbers on paper (e.g., Bangladesh, Myanmar, Pakistan).
Emissions intensity plunges—especially in China.
From 2011–2019, China cut SO₂ per $1,000 GDP by ~88% and NOₓ per $1,000 GDP by ~70%, outpacing reductions in most peers; high-income countries also continued large declines (>40% in SO₂ per GDP). Developed economies generally sit below 0.5 kg SO₂ and 1 kg NOₓ per $1,000 GDP; China has narrowed the gap markedly, though many developing Asian countries remain higher, with Mongolia notably elevated.
CO₂: total still rising, intensity falling.
China’s total CO₂ kept rising to 2020 with growth; CO₂ per capita also rose (~8.2 t in 2020, ~60% of US levels), but CO₂ per GDP fell ~35% (2011–2020) and ~66% since 1990, reflecting efficiency gains and structural shifts. Sectorally, power + industry ≈ 70% of China’s CO₂, similar to most Asian countries; exceptions include US/UK where transport dominates. Many Asian economies have announced net-zero/carbon-neutral goals (China: peak ~2030, neutrality 2060).
Energy: consumption up, intensity down; coal still central but declining share.
China’s total primary energy rose ~35% (2010–2019), but energy intensity (per GDP) fell ~37.5%. Coal’s share in consumption fell from 62.2% → 57.7% (2010–2019)—still dominant, but trending down. Across Asia, China, India, Mongolia have coal shares >50%; much of South-East Asia remains petroleum-heavy (28–86%). Installed non-hydro renewables shares are rising across countries; China’s power-sector standards tightened dramatically. Under ultra-low-emission (ULE) requirements for coal power, current limits are PM 10 mg/m³, SO₂ 35 mg/m³, NOₓ 50 mg/m³—about 1/5 (SO₂) and 1/3 (NOₓ) of EU limits—illustrating how standards + retrofits can cut stack emissions even before full decarbonization.
Transport: cleaner new vehicles, fuels, and growing EVs—but in-use and non-road need work.
Despite a 33% rise in automobile ownership (2013–2018), China cut road CO, NOₓ, HC, PM emissions by 10–26% via standards, inspection/maintenance, and cleaner fuels. China’s light-duty CHINA 6a/6b now surpasses Euro 6 in several respects; CHINA VI for heavy-duty aligns with best practices (EU/US), adds remote monitoring, and tightens real-world control. Fuel sulfur moved to 10 ppm nationwide for gasoline and diesel in 2017; many Asian countries still sit at 50–500 ppm. EVs surged: 2011–2021 China’s electric passenger-car CAGR was ~91%, with China capturing ~50% of global EV sales in 2021.
Shipping and ports: sulfur controls and ECAs.
IMO 2020 dropped global marine fuel sulfur to 0.5% m/m; Europe/North America’s ECAs require 0.1%. Asia lacks an IMO-designated international ECA, but China created domestic emission control areas (DECAs) (coast + Yangtze/West River) and tightened stepwise; Korea established SECAs at major ports. China’s domestic ship-engine standards (CHINA I/II) now approximate EU Stage III-A/US Tier 2–3, but still lag EU Stage V/US Tier 4 (e.g., PN requirements). Shore-power and fuel-switch measures are expanding.
Industry: ULE for steel and cement.
China is the world’s largest producer of steel and cement; while outputs have been massive, PM/SO₂/NOₓ from these sectors dropped sharply during the 2010s (e.g., cement PM −62.8%, NOₓ −63.5% by 2020; steel PM −45%, SO₂ −68.7%, NOₓ −9.4% by 2019) thanks to strengthened standards and ULE retrofits following the power sector model. The broader structural trend shows the tertiary sector rising in value added, with the secondary share falling from 46% → 38% (2010–2020).
Core takeaways.
Science-based, progressively tighter standards—ambient and sector-specific—plus enforcement drive fast pollutant declines. 2) Structural shifts in energy, industry, and transport reduce emissions intensity, even if totals can keep rising with scale. 3) Ozone is now the difficult frontier, requiring VOC-centric strategies and methane control. 4) Harmonized fuels/vehicle standards, I&M, and in-use compliance (on-road, non-road, shipping) are decisive. 5) Benchmarking and exchange across Asia accelerates convergence toward best practice.
Keywords
PM₂.₅ ↓ 56% (2013–2021); SO₂ ↓ 78%; Action Plan (2013); Kuznets “turning point” (~$10k GDP/cap); O₃ near WHO IT-1 (100 µg/m³); AAQS vs WHO AQG; SO₂/NOₓ per-GDP intensity big declines; CO₂ intensity ↓ ~35% (2011–2020); coal share 57.7% (2019) and falling; energy intensity ↓ 37.5%; ULE coal power (PM 10, SO₂ 35, NOₓ 50 mg/m³); CHINA 6a/6b (LDV), CHINA VI (HDV); fuel sulfur 10 ppm (2017); EVs growth (~91% CAGR; ~50% global share 2021); IMO 2020 (0.5% S); China DECAs, Korea SECAs; ULE steel/cement emissions cuts.