Publications·December 27, 2022
In 2022, Energy Foundation China supported Tsinghua University to research on a 2025 co-control strategy for air pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions in Hebei, a northern China manufacturing province that has suffered from air pollution. Their findings were summarized in this report in December 2022.
The report analyzes emission behavior of criteria air pollutants and greenhouse gases in Hebei during 2016 to 2020, collects the province’s pollution and carbon policies at that time, and evaluates their costs and effects. After that, the report proposes an co-control strategy for the 14th Five-Year Plan period of 2021 to 2025 based on a scenario analysis.
The authors of the report hope their findings can be helpful to Hebei, as it tries to mitigate air pollution and carbon emissions, achieve high-quality economic development, and clean the environment at the same time.
This Tsinghua University study builds a province-level roadmap for Hebei to improve air quality and curb greenhouse gases during the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021–2025). It quantifies where emissions come from, what worked in 2016–2020 (“13th FYP”), what it cost, and lays out coordinated pathways to 2025 using scenario analysis. The work rests on a bottom-up emissions inventory (MEIC), cost curves, and WRF–CMAQ air-quality modeling, then extends with the DPEC projection model to compare a reference path, carbon-peaking paths, and a pollution–carbon “synergy” path for 2020–2025.
Framed by China’s national push for “coordinated pollution and carbon reduction” (减污降碳协同增效), the report notes Hebei’s heavy coal dependence, highly concentrated steel/cement base, and road-dominant freight—factors that make air-quality progress hard and carbon control urgent.
Where Hebei stands (2015–2020)
Over 2015–2020, SO₂, NOx, PM₂․₅, VOCs, NH₃ all fell while GDP and key industrial outputs rose—a “win–win” indicating policy effectiveness. Specifically, SO₂ dropped 52.6%, NOx 15.2%, PM₂․₅ 39.3%, VOCs 20.4%, NH₃ 18.1%; CO₂ rose ~4.8% from 0.769 to 0.806 billion tonnes, highlighting the climate challenge that remains.
Hebei led the country in VOCs reduction during this period, yet the province’s NOx and SO₂ declines were mid-pack relative to other provinces.
Sector picture. For SO₂ and PM₂․₅, industry and residential (民用) were dominant sources—residential controls made the largest dent in PM₂․₅; for NOx, industry + transport lead and the transport share is rising; for VOCs, solvent use + industry dominate and are growing in share; NH₃ is overwhelmingly agriculture (>90%); CO₂ is mainly industry + power, with a shrinking residential share thanks to clean-heating policies. (Narrative synthesized from the report’s sectoral breakdowns and figures.)
How the numbers were built (methods in brief)
Inventory & factors. The team compiles a Hebei-specific emissions inventory using MEIC with localized emission factors (combining measurement, material balance, and literature/EF libraries such as AP-42/EMEP/IPCC) to reduce uncertainty.
Modeling. WRF + CMAQ simulate PM₂․₅ and precursor chemistry to attribute air-quality improvements to each policy measure via baseline vs 11 sensitivity runs (same 2020 meteorology; “add back” emissions to isolate a measure’s contribution).
Costing. A province-level abatement-cost model (28 detailed sectors; device-level for coal power, steel, cement; vehicle-level for road fleets) accounts for CapEx, OpEx, and energy costs across end-of-pipe, process upgrades, fuel-switching, CCS, and renewables; it returns marginal and program costs for ranked options.
Forward look. The DPEC framework, driven by GCAM-China energy/activity trajectories, projects Hebei’s 2020–2025 emissions under multiple scenarios, enabling a co-control pathway compared to a reference and peaking paths.
What worked in the 13th FYP—and at what cost
Policies grouped into 11 measure clusters (fuel switching/clean heating, small boiler phase-out, ultra-low-emission (ULE) retrofits in power/steel/coke, “scattered and dirty” enterprise rectification, solvent source substitution, mobile sources control including standards and old-vehicle retirement, dust and agricultural controls, etc.) were quantified for emission reductions, PM₂․₅ concentration improvements, and implementation costs. Residential clean-heating and industrial ULE upgrades delivered large PM₂․₅ and SO₂ cuts; transport measures were pivotal for NOx, though the report flags the rising transport share and the need to tighten in-use controls.
Energy combustion is the backbone driver: across 2015–2020 it accounts for most of NOx and CO₂, and a falling yet still high share of SO₂/PM₂․₅/VOCs—underscoring why coal and oil control is decisive. (Energy-attribution discussion summarized from the report.)
The 14th FYP policy frame and regional benchmarking
The authors systematize Hebei’s 14th FYP policies into a multi-pillar framework—source control, key sectors, environmental governance, innovation pilots, technology R&D—and set quantitative indicators (energy, industry, transport, agriculture, buildings). They compare Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) measures and targets to locate gaps and good practices that Hebei can import.
Scenarios and the “synergy” pathway to 2025
Using DPEC, the study simulates:
a reference pathway;
a carbon-peaking pathway (on-time or earlier peaking); and
a co-benefits (“synergy”) pathway that jointly optimizes PM₂․₅ precursors and CO₂.
Across 2020–2025 the synergy path leverages fuel structure change (less coal, more gas/renewables/electrification), deep ULE upgrades in industry, stricter mobile-source control (standards + in-use), solvent management, and agricultural NH₃. The analysis yields a coherent target bundle (by pollutant and sector) that meets 14th FYP air-quality goals while bending the CO₂ curve toward peaking.
Transport specifics. Transport contributes about one-third of NOx and notable VOCs/PM₂․₅; within transport, diesel road vehicles and non-road machinery dominate NOx and PM₂․₅. 2015→2020 saw diesel-vehicle NOx fall ~15.6% (non-road −1.4%), but the transport share in NOx crept up, implying the 14th FYP must tighten in-use compliance and fleet turnover while expanding zero-emission logistics.
Priority actions distilled
Cut coal use structurally. Advance power and industry fuel-switching; accelerate clean-heating to lock in the residential PM₂․₅/SO₂ gains while minimizing rebound. (Consistent with inventory and energy-attribution results.)
Finish ULE in heavy industry (steel, cement, coke) and maintain strict O&M to keep device performance at design levels; integrate cost-effectiveness so the next increments target the highest marginal benefits first.
Tackle NOx at source and in use for road and non-road diesel: strengthen standards, inspection/maintenance, remote-sensing/PEMS/OBD, retire older vehicles/equipment, and prioritize zero-emission trucks/buses on urban and short-haul duty cycles.
Manage VOCs at the solvent/process source (coatings, petrochemicals, printing) with low-solvent formulations, substitution, and tight fugitive controls—a key reason Hebei led national VOCs reduction 2015–2020, yet shares are rising in solvent/industry.
Curb agricultural NH₃ via fertilizer efficiency and manure management—vital for secondary PM₂․₅; integrate with rural programs to raise uptake. (From the sectoral split showing NH₃ ≫ agriculture.)
Plan with co-benefits lenses. Use the synergy scenario’s sector-by-sector target bundle to align PM/O₃ control and carbon peaking, minimizing total system cost.
Bottom line
Hebei achieved large pollutant cuts in 2015–2020 while its economy grew, but CO₂ rose—so the 14th FYP must lock in structural coal reductions, deepen ULE in industry, and tighten mobile-source control while electrifying end-uses. The report’s MEIC/WRF-CMAQ/DPEC toolkit shows how a “synergy” pathway can meet air-quality targets and bend the CO₂ curve—turning a tough, coal-heavy industrial province toward cleaner air and low-carbon growth.
Keywords
Hebei; co-control (air + carbon); MEIC; WRF–CMAQ; DPEC; PM₂․₅; SO₂; NOx; VOCs; NH₃; ultra-low-emission (ULE); clean heating; diesel in-use control; solvent management; abatement cost; synergy pathway.