Publications·November 30, 2021
In December 2021, with support from Energy Foundation China, Shanxi Ecological Environment Protection Service Center released this report proposing how the coal-dependent province can use coordinated approaches to achieve air improvement and carbon mitigation goals for the next five years.
Based on Shanxi’s experience from the 13th Five-Year Plan period of 2016–2020, the report proposes synergetic 2025 air quality improvement and carbon emission reduction targets for the province, which is one of China’s biggest coal producing centers and has sufferd from severe air pollution. With the constraint of the province’s air quality targets, the report also analyzes viable co-control policy options, such as setting a total coal consumption cap and making industrial structure adjustment.
Authors hope the report can provide scientific evidence for coordinated air quality improvement and carbon peaking work in Shanxi.
This provincial abstract sets Shanxi’s air-quality targets to 2025 and 2035 and lays out a co-governance roadmap that tackles PM₂.₅ and its precursors (SO₂, NOₓ, primary PM, VOCs) alongside carbon. It looks back at the 13th Five-Year Plan (2016–2020), quantifies what actually reduced emissions, and then specifies how energy, industry and transport structure must shift in the 14th FYP to hit ambient goals while bending the CO₂ curve. It is both a target sheet (e.g., city PM₂.₅ goals) and a playbook (spatial planning, industrial upgrades, VOCs control, clean heating, freight rail, NEVs, diesel enforcement, non-road machinery).
What changed in 2016–2020 (the 13th FYP)
Shanxi focused on four structural levers—industry, energy, transport, land use—and executed a familiar but large set of actions: eliminating “scattered-dirty” enterprises (~10,000 shut), phasing out small coal boilers in built-up areas, completing ultra-low emission (ULE) retrofits in coal power and tightening special emission limits in steel, cement and coking, scaling clean heating with “no-coal zones” in 11 cities/69 counties, and pushing mobile-source control (early adoption of China 6 in 8 key cities, “road-to-rail” for coal, and retiring ~200k older vehicles). Dust control (“six 100%s”) and autumn–winter heavy-pollution campaigns rounded out the package. Result: SO₂, NOₓ, PM and VOCs reductions measured in the hundreds of thousands of tonnes over five years, with clear sector fingerprints (e.g., residential led SO₂/PM cuts; industry led NOₓ/VOCs).
The same measures created meaningful carbon co-benefits: the plan estimates ~102 million tCO₂/year reduced during the 13th FYP, driven mainly by residential clean heating and boiler淘汰 (≈46% of the CO₂ co-reduction), then industrial actions (≈33%), with power and transport making up the rest. Boiler淘汰 alone contributed ~34.2% of the co-reduction; coal-power unit retirements ~19.6%.
Where Shanxi needs to be (targets to 2025/2035)
Using a “heavier pollution → steeper reduction” principle and 2020 baselines, the province sets a 2025 provincial PM₂.₅ average target of 40 μg/m³, and full attainment by 2035. City examples for 2025 include Taiyuan 45, Datong 31, Shuozhou 33, with the rest distributed by current exceedance levels; by 2035, all cities must stably meet the national standard.
To reach the 2025 concentration goal, modeled precursor cuts vs 2019 are: SO₂ −19.5%, NOₓ −19.0%, primary PM −22.2%, VOCs −23.7%; by 2035 the required reductions deepen to SO₂ −45.8%, NOₓ −40.4%, primary PM −44.0%, VOCs −48.3%. Translating this: coal and solvent/industrial VOCs must keep falling, diesel NOₓ must be restrained in-use, and dust/NH₃ must be managed to hold secondary PM down.
The 14th FYP strategy toolbox (co-control by design)
1) Structure first: energy, industry, transport
Energy: keep coal consumption flat to negative growth through 2025, meet new demand with coal-bed methane and non-fossil; raise non-fossil to ~12% of final energy. Power: continue compliance sweeps, retire small/inefficient units, lower heat rates, and optimize coal-unit layout around airshed constraints. Wind/PV bases scale up (e.g., 7 GW wind in the north; multi-GW PV bases in Lüliang/Datong/Changzhi). Hydrogen and storage pilots expand to enable clean logistics and renewable smoothing.
Industry: no new capacity in steel/coking/cement/glass/aluminum/coal-chemistry in priority regions; 淘汰 backward capacity (e.g., 4.3 m coke ovens), push ULE in steel/cement/coking, and move heavy clusters out of valley/urban transport corridors (“三线一单” spatial controls; “飞地经济” relocation where needed). LP furnace to EAF shifts and energy-ladder utilization (TRT, waste-heat) cut both PM/NOₓ and CO₂.
Transport: consolidate rail for bulk (all outbound coal/coke by rail; connect major plants/parks via spurs), electrify urban fleets (buses, sanitation, logistics, postal, government vehicles), and accelerate diesel I/M with roadside/remote sensing/OBD/PEMS and seasonal heavy-duty controls. Target: pre-China-6 diesel retirements, Green Logistics zones, and charging/battery-swap networks in logistics hubs.
2) VOCs as a first-class pollutant
Adopt full “source–process–end-of-pipe” control with material substitution and LDAR:
By 2023: in engineering machinery, ≥50% high-solids/powder coatings; in steel structures, ≥70% high-solids coatings; in packaging/printing, ≥75% low/zero-VOC inks/adhesives/cleaners (e.g., water-borne, energy-curing, soybean-based). Auto repair should reach ≥60% water-borne/high-solids basecoats.
Enforce GB 37822-2019 (unorganized VOCs), require LDAR across sectors (coking, coal-chem, fine chem, rubbers, coatings/printing), eliminate bypasses, and audit the “three rates”: capture rate, co-operation rate, removal rate. Key enterprises (VOCs ≥10 t/yr) implement internal unorganized-control procedures and face rising pass rates → 100% by 2025.
3) Eliminate scattered coal & lock in clean heating
Finish ≤35 t/h coal-boiler phaseout (province-wide “zero”), expand online monitoring for remaining boilers, and scale clean heating (district heat, air-source heat pumps, clean biomass, PV-assisted electric) with “no-coal zones” covering all built-up county areas—100% coverage within 5 km buffers by 2023—and enforce acceptance/O&M so benefits persist.
4) Non-road mobile & dust
Define control zones for non-road equipment, align with national emission stages, stop high-emitter machinery from entering urban cores, and pilot zero/near-zero equipment in airports, rail yards and logistics parks. Keep construction/road/yard dust down with enclosure, paving, wheel-wash and real-time sensors.
Implementation signals & expected effects
The province’s 2020 CO₂ was ~0.49 Gt, with energy shares coal 73.7%, coke 15.8%, oil 3.8%, gas 6.6%—a stark reminder that coal remains the dominant driver. The plan expects gas use to rise with clean-heating substitution (2018–2020 gas consumption grew ~12%/yr; maintaining that would add ~75 bn m³ by 2025, ~25.5 MtCO₂), so coal reductions and efficiency must more than offset this to keep carbon peaking on track.
Under the recommended 14th-FYP measures, the abstract’s accounting shows 2025 emission cuts of roughly SO₂ −22%, NOₓ −9.5%, primary PM −7.4%, VOCs −38% (absolute reductions about 57 kt, 51 kt, 62 kt, 90 kt, respectively)—consistent with the provincial PM₂.₅ target path when combined with structural shifts and seasonal operations.
Why this matters now
For a coal-heavy industrial base like Shanxi, PM₂.₅ attainment can’t rely on end-of-pipe alone. The plan shows how structural actions—less coal, cleaner industry layouts, rail freight, electrified fleets, solvent substitution, and airtight VOCs programs—deliver PM₂.₅, O₃-precursor and CO₂ reductions together. Success hinges on O&M discipline (keep devices performing), in-use enforcement (diesel/gas vehicles and non-road machinery), and credible QA/QC (for boilers, VOCs capture, and enterprise LDAR). If executed as specified, Shanxi can reach 40 μg/m³ by 2025 and place itself on a 2035 full-attainment trajectory without losing sight of carbon peaking, aligning with the national “减污降碳协同增效” agenda.
Keywords
Shanxi; 14th FYP; PM₂.₅ target 40 μg/m³ (2025); SO₂/NOₓ/PM/VOCs reductions; clean heating / scattered-coal phaseout; ULE in steel/cement/coking/power; VOCs substitution + LDAR (GB 37822-2019); rail freight; NEVs + diesel in-use enforcement; non-road control; coal control & non-fossil growth; air–climate co-governance.